Cross-En-Route Aircraft Collision Risk Study Considering the Warning Adjustment Process

In this research, a comprehensive cross-route collision risk assessment model was developed with the aim of accurately determining the minimum safety interval for aircraft during cross-route flights. At the beginning of the study, the event tree analysis (ETA) method was adopted to meticulously break down the aircraft’s flight process. Subsequently, a stochastic differential equation was established based on the route structure to precisely describe the aircraft’s position change. The Monte Carlo method was then utilised to calculate the probability of conflicts. When the air traffic control officer’s (ATCO) deployment malfunctions and is likely to trigger an alarm, the fault tree (FT) and dynamic event tree (DET) analysis methods were further employed. These two methods were used to calculate the failure probability of the warning system and the pilot’s operation error probability respectively, thereby obtaining the failure probability during the warning adjustment process. The completed comprehensive assessment model has powerful functions and can efficiently simulate and accurately evaluate collision risks under different initial conditions.