Long Range Aircraft Trajectory Prediction

The subject of the paper is the improvement of the aircraft future trajectory prediction accuracy for long-range airborne separation assurance. The strategic planning of safe aircraft flights and effective conflict avoidance tactics demand timely and accurate conflict detection based upon future four–dimensional airborne traffic situation prediction which is as accurate as each aircraft flight trajectory prediction. The improved kinematics model of aircraft relative flight considering flight crew intention, aircraft true airspeed variability, and atmosphere conditions is introduced in the paper. The study is focused on improved kinematics model of aircraft relative flight position error estimation. Operational airborne separation capabilities are outlined based on the comparison between the improved and simple model of aircraft relative flight. KEY WORDS: aircraft trajectory prediction, trajectory prediction error, aircraft position prediction error, flight safety